Talarico Still In The Lead
A new Fox News poll suggests the upcoming Texas Senate race could be more competitive than many political observers expected. Democratic candidate James Talarico is attracting support from a segment of Republican voters, raising questions about whether internal GOP divisions could influence one of the nation’s most closely watched Senate contests.
The survey found Talarico leading Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton by a narrow 51% to 48% margin in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup. While Republicans have dominated statewide elections in Texas for more than three decades, Democrats see the latest numbers as evidence that the race could remain competitive through Election Day.
Paxton entered the general election after defeating longtime Sen. John Cornyn in a hard-fought Republican primary. He also secured the endorsement of President Donald Trump, giving his campaign a major boost among conservative voters.
Even so, political analysts say the lengthy primary battle may have left some Republican voters divided. Paxton has also faced years of legal and political controversies, including securities fraud charges that were later resolved, impeachment proceedings in the Texas House that ended with his acquittal in the Senate, and personal scandals that have continued to receive media attention.
According to the Fox News survey, nearly one in four Republicans who do not identify with the MAGA movement said they would support Talarico over Paxton. That crossover support is one reason Democrats believe they have an opportunity to compete in a state that has consistently voted Republican in statewide races.
Fox News correspondent Garret Tenney said the data indicates the Republican primary may still be affecting voter attitudes months after the election concluded.
According to Tenney, many Republican voters continue to have reservations about Paxton’s personal controversies, with concerns about his character outweighing concerns about Talarico’s political platform among some respondents.
Republicans, meanwhile, have worked to portray Talarico as a progressive candidate whose policies are out of step with many Texas voters. His support for proposals such as Medicare for All and expanded protections for transgender Americans has become a central focus of Republican campaign messaging.
The poll found that 59% of Texas voters expressed serious concerns about whether Paxton has the character to serve in the U.S. Senate. By comparison, 47% said they were concerned that Talarico’s political positions are too liberal.
Despite those findings, the survey suggests that most Texans continue to prioritize policy over personality when choosing a candidate.
Approximately 80% of supporters for both Paxton and Talarico said their vote is based primarily on the candidates’ positions on issues rather than their personal qualities or public image.
That finding indicates voters remain focused on major concerns such as the economy, border security, inflation, taxes, energy policy, healthcare, and government spending as the campaign moves forward.
The Texas Senate race is expected to draw national attention in the months ahead. Republicans view the seat as critical to maintaining their Senate majority, while Democrats see it as one of their few potential pickup opportunities in a traditionally Republican state.
The Fox News poll was conducted July 23–27 among 1,006 registered Texas voters. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.
