Newsom’s Replacement Still In The Lead?

California voters are preparing to make a major decision that could shape the future of the nation’s most populous state, and a newly released poll suggests one candidate has gained a significant advantage just days before the primary election.

The latest Emerson College Polling survey shows former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra leading the crowded field in California’s governor race with 28% support. Billionaire businessman Tom Steyer follows at 22%, while Republican candidate Steve Hilton remains close behind with 21%.

With Election Day approaching, political observers are closely watching whether Republicans can consolidate support and challenge Democratic dominance in a state that has faced years of debate over rising living costs, crime concerns, homelessness, and business departures.

Becerra Emerges as the Candidate to Beat

Becerra’s rise has been one of the most unexpected developments of the campaign.

Less than a year ago, he struggled to gain traction among voters. Polling showed him receiving only 5% support in September 2025 and falling to 3% by March. Since then, however, his campaign has gained momentum, helping him move into first place heading into the final days of voting.

His recent surge has positioned him as the clear frontrunner and given Democrats renewed confidence that they can maintain control of the governor’s office.

Polling analyst Spencer Kimball said Becerra enters the primary with a measurable advantage but noted that several candidates still have a realistic path forward.

Steve Hilton Remains Republicans’ Strongest Hope

For Republicans, former Fox News commentator Steve Hilton continues to emerge as the party’s strongest statewide contender.

Hilton currently sits just one point behind Tom Steyer and remains within striking distance of securing a place in the November general election.

Many conservatives view Hilton as a candidate capable of speaking directly to voters frustrated by California’s economic challenges and concerns about government policies that critics argue have contributed to declining affordability.

Meanwhile, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco received 12% support in the survey.

Political analysts suggest that if conservative voters rally behind a single candidate, Hilton could benefit from a late surge that changes the race’s trajectory.

Katie Porter’s Campaign Sees Stunning Collapse

One of the biggest surprises in the race has been the dramatic decline of former Representative Katie Porter.

When Porter entered the contest, she attracted considerable attention and registered 16% support among voters.

The newest polling, however, shows her support has fallen to just 5%.

The sharp decline illustrates how rapidly voter preferences have shifted as Californians focus on the candidates they believe have the strongest chance of advancing beyond the primary.

California Voters Have Mostly Made Up Their Minds

The survey also revealed that most voters have already settled on their preferred candidate.

Only 5% of respondents remain undecided, marking the lowest undecided number recorded during the campaign.

That figure is a dramatic change from October, when nearly four out of every ten voters said they had not yet decided whom to support.

Nearly three-quarters of respondents said they are firmly committed to their candidate, while roughly one-quarter said they could still change their minds before voting.

Strong voter loyalty appears especially evident among Republican supporters. Eighty-eight percent of both Hilton and Bianco supporters said they are certain of their choice.

Among Becerra supporters, 76% said they are firmly committed to backing him.

A Race With Historic Implications

The election could also carry historic significance.

If Becerra ultimately wins the governor’s office, he would become California’s first Latino governor in more than 150 years.

His recent lead follows another strong showing in polling conducted by the Public Policy Institute of California, suggesting his support may be strengthening at exactly the right moment.

What Happens Next?

California’s unique primary system allows the top two vote-getters to advance to the general election regardless of party affiliation.

That means voters could ultimately see a Democrat-versus-Democrat showdown in November, or Republicans could secure a spot in the final race if support consolidates behind Hilton in the closing days.

With millions of Californians preparing to cast ballots, the final outcome remains one of the most closely watched political stories in the country.

The Emerson College survey was conducted May 27-28 among 1,000 likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.