A political earthquake may be brewing in Tennessee, and it has Republicans across the country sounding the alarm.
What was once considered a routine special election is now turning into one of the most important Congressional battles of the year—one that could determine whether Republicans keep control of the House under President Trump.
A Deep-Red District Suddenly in Danger
Tennessee’s 7th District—an area President Trump won by 22 points—should be one of the safest seats in the country for the GOP. Yet Republicans now fear that a once guaranteed victory could slip away, threatening their already razor-thin House majority.
Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) spelled it out clearly: “I’m very concerned about it… I worry about Republicans showing up on Election Day.”
For older conservative voters, travel around Thanksgiving and low attention on off-year elections could open the door to a Democrat upset.
Why This Race Matters: The GOP Majority Is on the Line
With Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene retiring and multiple special elections on the horizon, losing this Tennessee race could shrink the Republican majority to a zero-vote margin—making it nearly impossible to pass conservative legislation without full party unity.
If Democrats flip the seat and then win upcoming races, the House could drop to 218–216.
At that point, one defection would stall any GOP bill on:
- Border security
- Spending cuts
- National defense
- Law enforcement support
- Election integrity reforms
Republicans would lose all room for error.
Shocking New Poll Rocks GOP Leaders
A new Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey sent shockwaves through Washington.
It shows Republican Matt Van Epps barely ahead of Democrat Aftyn Behn—known to many conservatives as the “AOC of Tennessee”.
- Van Epps: 48%
- Behn: 46%
That is well within the margin of error.
Burchett believes older conservative voters may ultimately save the seat, but warned Republicans must treat this as a red-alert scenario.
“If it’s close, that should be enough of a wake-up call,” he said. “If she wins, it could be devastating.”
Democrats Smell an Opportunity—and They’re Moving In
This race comes after Democrats dramatically overperformed in several off-year contests. Even Kamala Harris traveled to Tennessee to campaign for Behn—a clear sign national Democrats think the seat is in play.
Democratic strategists claim the GOP is panicking because they know a Democratic win in a Trump-heavy district would signal serious trouble heading into the midterms.
Republicans, however, say they remain confident.
NRCC spokesperson Reilly Richardson told The Post: “Matt Van Epps will be a member of Congress.”
Still, GOP campaign committees are pouring major resources into the district to protect the seat and avoid a narrative-changing upset.
Who Is Aftyn Behn? Her Record Raises Major Red Flags
Republicans warn that Aftyn Behn’s record is far too extreme for Tennessee. Her own statements reveal why many in the district are concerned:
- She said she “hates” Nashville—its music, tourism, and culture
- Labeled Tennessee a “racist state” in a 2019 op-ed
- Supported efforts to defund the police
- Wrote during the 2020 riots that “burning down a police station is justified”
- Now claims she “doesn’t remember” making those statements
Rep. Burchett didn’t mince words: “She’s an extremist… and she won’t even address what she said about police, the military, or the border.”
For older conservative voters—especially veterans, law enforcement supporters, and Trump loyalists—Behn’s past comments are a glaring warning sign.
The Republican Candidate: Matt Van Epps
Van Epps, who previously served as a Tennessee state commissioner, is campaigning aggressively on:
- Restoring law and order
- Supporting President Trump
- Protecting conservative values
- Securing the southern border
- Standing with police and the military
He has emphasized Behn’s radical positions to highlight the stark contrast in the race.
Why This Special Election Matters for Every Conservative
If Republicans lose this seat:
- The GOP House majority could effectively collapse
- Democrats would gain momentum heading into 2026
- Conservative legislation would stall
- Biden/Harris-aligned Democrats would claim a major victory
- The national media would push a new anti-Trump narrative
The district was held by Rep. Mark Green—who won by more than 21 points in 2024. But this year’s race is different: big spending, national involvement, and a Democrat candidate with heavy backing from the left.
Bottom Line: This Race Could Decide the Future of the GOP Majority
Tennessee’s 7th District is suddenly the center of the political universe. A district that should be a Republican stronghold has become a must-win battle that could determine:
- President Trump’s legislative success
- Control of the House
- The direction of the country heading into the midterms
If conservative voters don’t show up, Democrats could pull off an upset with historic consequences.
